With just one final football game left on the board this year, it’s time to figure out the best bets for Super Bowl 2020.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been among the favorites all season while the San Francisco 49ers are a great outhouse-to-penthouse story as they were a four-win team last year and entered the season with Super Bowl odds of 45/1.
Let’s take a look both the spread and total for the game as do our weekly tour of the best bets on the board:
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Date: Sunday, February 2nd
In terms of the side for this game, the best bets for Super Bowl 2020 really boil down to just a few things. Here’s what we know on a high level:
- The Chiefs have the better of the two passing games but they’re weaker at running the football and almost everywhere on defense.
- Special teams are about equal.
- Is the Chiefs passing game going to do enough to carry the team to victory? I think not.
To start, we’ve seen just how bad the Chiefs can be at times as they dug themselves at 24-0 hole against the Houston Texans and a 17-7 hole to the Tennessee Titans. Both of those games were at home.
They passed their way out of it in both cases but now they’re going up against the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL.
- The 49ers defense allowed opposing passers a 5.9 yards-per-attempt average (best in NFL)
- 83.0 passer rating (seventh in the NFL)
- And a 61.3 completion percentage (seventh in the NFL)
Even in the team’s three losses this year, it was the run defense that proved vulnerable and not the pass defense (just 165.0 passing yards per game in the losses).
On the other side of the ball, I just don’t see this as a great matchup for the Chiefs defense. They’re going to be going up the second-best rushing offense in the NFL but they allowed a whopping 4.9 yards-per-carry this season.
That mark was the fourth-worst in the NFL. The 49ers offense has had some issues at times this year but generally speaking, if they’re able to run the ball and effectively use their play-action pass, they’re quite effective.
When you add it up, the 49ers game plan is quite simple: just find a way to slow the Chiefs electric passing game down. If they can – and we’ve seen teams like the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are capable – then the Chiefs are quite vulnerable.
San Francisco is too balanced both on offense and from the offense to their defense. That will be the difference on Super Bowl Sunday.
Pick: 49ers +1.5
Super LIV Total
Date: Sunday, February 2nd
Taking a look at the total, we see a high number on the board of 54 but I’m leaning more to the under. This number has actually crept up through the week as it opened at 52 at DraftKings but has since climbed up to 54.
The 49ers path to a win here is to do more of what we’ve seen many teams do against the Chiefs: run the ball, possess the ball and keep their prolific offense on the sidelines. San Francisco’s defense has only allowed 30 points in two playoff games and while I’m not expecting them to hold the Chiefs to 15 points, I am expecting them to work on shortening the game.
I like San Francisco to win this game in the 28-24 type of range, which is still a relatively high-scoring affair but keeps us under the number.
Pick: Under 54
Nick Bosa Sacks At Super Bowl LIV
Date: Sunday, February 2nd
The Chiefs offensive line versus the 49ers pass rush will be one of the key stories to Super Bowl LIV. The Chiefs allowed just 25 sacks on the season, which was tied for the third-fewest in the NFL.
As for the 49ers, their pass rush collected 48 sacks this season, which was the sixth-most.
One of the keys here is that the 49ers also have the NFL’s top pass defense in terms of yards-per-game allowed and give up the fewest yards-per-attempt.
I think that’ll slow Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes just enough to the point that he’ll have to hold onto the ball a little longer than he’d like.
Nick Bosa had nine sacks on the year but he has three in two playoff games so far. I’m expecting him to wreak some havoc on Super Bowl Sunday and get to Mahomes at least once, so that’s why this makes for one of the best bets for Super Bowl 2020.
Pick: Over 0.5 +117
Other Things To Watch This Week
Phoenix Waste Management Open – One of the most unique golf events of the year is on tap this weekend as the PGA Tour golfers will head to the TPC Scottsdale. The stadium-like atmosphere on the 16th hole is a sight to behold – both in-person and via broadcast – and it’s one of aspects that makes this such a special tournament.
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – Two teams fighting for a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference standings will clash on Saturday night. The Celtics entered the week just one game up on the 76ers in the standings. These two teams met on January 9th in Philadelphia where the 76ers won 109-98.
No. 13 Kentucky vs No. 17 Auburn – Kentucky and Auburn have just six losses between the two of them, which shows that these two teams are both expected to be factors in March Madness this year. They’ll square off in a marquee matchup on Saturday night, which will be featured on ESPN.
