Week 10 was filled with a number of shocking results, including the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans losing outright to the Miami Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons. A lot of people’s suicide pools probably went astray as a result.
At any rate, we’ll shift our focus towards Week 11, which has a number of tantalizing games on the calendar:
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Date: Sunday, November 18th
Very quietly, the Miami Dolphins have been quite competitive over their last five games. To start, they’ve won two in a row, which is quite impressive when you consider that many people thought they’d go winless this season.
But even before that, the Miami Dolphins lost on a game-ending failed two-point conversion in Washington, then held a five-point lead in Buffalo in the third quarter and had a 14-0 lead in Pittsburgh.
They’ve just happened to self-destruct quite a bit with turnovers but they could easily be 3-2 or even 4-1 in their last five games.
On Sunday, they’ll host the Buffalo Bills, who are coming off a loss at Cleveland. The Bills have now dropped two of their last three and are just 3-3 in their last six. They don’t look as crisp as the team who started the year 3-0.
Seven points just feel like a lot in this spot. Miami has played well and now they’re back at home. Their home-field doesn’t mean a ton but they’re better than their record suggests while the Bills – at 6-3 – are not quite as good as theirs is.
Pick: Dolphins +7
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Odds: Ravens -4.5 at DraftKings
Date: Sunday, November 18th
The Houston Texans lost to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 but just three weeks later, find themselves at the top of the division. That’s because they’ve won two in a row and had their bye, while the Colts have come unglued with back-to-back losses.
In this spot, the Texans now go on the road to face the Baltimore Ravens, who have a red-hot offense right now. Baltimore scored 49 last week at the Cincinnati Bengals but also hung 37 on the New England Patriots the week before.
Baltimore has scored less than 25 points just once since Week 2 and is averaging 31.1 points per game in that span. Now that they’re going to be going up against a defense that ranks 28th against the pass with 277.3 passing yards per game.
They allowed just three points to the Jacksonville Jaguars in their latest outing but prior to that, had given up 29.3 points per game over their last four.
As for the Ravens, their defense is going to have their hands full with Deshaun Watson, an MVP candidate who is having an excellent season. The Ravens pass defense is ranked 20th in the NFL and has collected just 16 sacks – the fifth-fewest in the NFL. The Texans offense usually struggles when Watson is running for his life but that probably won’t be the case in this spot.
When you add it up, I’m expecting to see points aplenty in this showdown. We have a total of 50 but I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams approach the 30-point mark.
Pick: Over 50
New York Jets at Washington Redskins
Date: Sunday, November 18th
The Jets picked up a big win over the New York Giants on Sunday to earn their second win of the season. It’s quite clear that the Jets are not a great team but this was a step in the right direction and I’m expecting them to keep momentum on their side on Sunday.
The Jets defense was carved up by Daniel Jones (he had four touchdowns) but they stopped Saquon Barkley cold as he had one of the worst games of his young career (one rushing yards).
This week, the Jets will face another rookie quarterback – Dwayne Haskins – but he hasn’t looked very good early on in his career. He has yet to throw a touchdown but has four interceptions.
This game is a toss-up but the Redskins don’t have much of home-field advantage and have only beaten one team this season (Miami). I’m not sure they deserve to be a favorite in any scenario. That being the case, I’ll take the Jets as a road dog.
Pick: Jets +1
Other Things To Watch This Week
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 11 Baylor – The Bears are undefeated and they’re at home, yet they find themselves as a 10-point home dog in what many views as the biggest Big 12 game of the year. Few people believe in them – especially after they barely survived TCU last week. However, a win here would give them a lot of credibilities.
No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 4 Clemson – The Tigers were supposed to have a cakewalk of a schedule and while they mostly have, they’ll get a surprise Top 25 opponent on Saturday. It could help them convince the College Football Playoff committee that they’re a legit team as they were originally ranked outside of the Top 4. Even though Wake Forest is ranked in the Top 25, Clemson is a massive 33.5-point favorite in this spot.
No. 6 Georgia at No. 12 Auburn – One week after LSU topped Alabama, we’ll see another epic SEC game between Georgia and Auburn. The Bulldogs need a win if they’re to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt. Meanwhile, Auburn returns off of their bye week looking to play spoiler.
See you same time next week when we start off the week with our Best Bets Of The Week!
