It was a decent week for us with last week’s Bet’s Of The Week, as we went 1-1 with our selections and NBA odds and lines, but then also cashed our Novak Djokovic-Wimbledon pick from the week before.
We’ve got lots of action on the board to cover from baseball to the British Open to a big boxing fight on Saturday. Here’s our picks of the week:
1. NBA Odds Futures Bets
Philadelphia 76ers Regular Season Win Total
- Odds: 53.5 Wins at PointsBet
- Date: 2019-20
The 76ers were given the second-highest regular season win total among Eastern Conference teams (only behind the Milwaukee Bucks) but I like this team to go over. One of the main reasons for this, is that it is tied to the team that won their division last year: the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors look like a good team on paper right now but without a real chance of competing for a title this season and with a slew of contracts that are expiring this year, I expect them to be moving players like Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka for picks at the trade deadline.
When you factor that the 76ers should be an improved team and that the Raptors are in decline, the Boston Celtics are likely a bit worse from last year and the New York Knicks are still in shambles, this becomes the 76ers division to lose.
This team won 51 games last season and should finish the year first or second in the conference standings. That likely means an ‘over’ for NBA odds.
NJBetting Pick: Over 53.5
2. MLB Betting
New York Mets @ Minnesota Twins
- Date: Tuesday, 8:10 PM ET
- NJ Online Sportsbook Odds: DraftKings
(DraftKings Odds for Wednesday’s game: TBD)
The Twins look like they have a favorable matchup in their Tuesday night game with the New York Mets. The Mets will be putting Steven Matz on the mound but he has been a losing machine for this team. Although the Mets won when he pitched 0.2 innings on July 6th, they’ve actually lost five of the last six times he’s pitched.
The formula seems to be quite clear with Matz as he’s actually quite reliable at home, but unreliable on the road.
- At home, Matz is 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.
- Opponents bat .248 against him when he’s pitching at Citi Field.
However, the story changes quite a bit when he’s away.
- On the road he’s just 2-6 with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.74 ERA.
- Opposing batters are hitting .306 against him.
On Wednesday, Martin Perez will be on the mound for the Twins and he’s also pitched better at home (3.71 ERA) than on the road (4.97). I’m all for a small bet on the Mets, but it’s worth noting that Perez, who is 8-3 on the season, did most of his damage early and has struggled of late.
- He had a 3.97 ERA in April and 3.15 in May, but he has a 6.32 ERA over his last seven starts.
- He’s allowed at least four earned runs in five of those starts.
NJBetting Pick Tuesday night game:
With 523 runs scored this season and 402 runs allowed, the Twins have a run differential of +121, which ranks second only to the LA Dodgers.
- I’ll take Run Line for a TWINS WIN at -1.5 (+125)
- I’ll also take the OVER of 10
NJBetting Pick Wednesday night game:
The Twins probably win this game but I like the over in this spot as neither team has much quality on the mound in this one.
- I’ll take the OVER at 10
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
- NJ Online Sportsbook Odds: PointsBet
The Philadelphia Phillies are a bit of a fading commodity as the team that was once 10 games over .500 is now 11-18 over their last 29 contests. They’ll host the red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers this week for a four-game set and I’ll be looking to bet against Philadelphia on Tuesday.
The Phillies will put Vince Velasquez on the mound but they don’t often win when he pitches.
- They’ve won just once in his last seven outings.
- Keep in mind he’s mostly been making bullpen appearances.
- He’s pitched 1.2 innings against the Dodgers this season and they’ve batted .500 against him as he gave up three hits, three walks, two runs and a home run in that short stretch.
- From 2016-2018, the he compiled an 8.47 ERA against the Dodgers in 17.0 innings of work with a 1.65 WHIP.
As for the Dodgers, they’ll put Walker Buehler on the mound. The Dodgers have won seven of the last eight times he’s been on the mound. He’s given up just 26 earned runs in his last 87 innings of work (2.69 ERA).
The Dodgers have the edge on the mound here, so they’re the play.
NJBetting Pick: Dodgers (Spread and/or Money Line)
Other Events To Watch This Week
The final golf major of the year takes place this week as the PGA & European Tour players head to Dunluce Course in Royal Portrush, Northern Ireland.
- Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka are the favorites at +800 at PointsBet
- Jordan Spieth (+1200), Dustin Johnson (+1400) and Tiger Woods (+1400)
Manny Pacquiao-Keith Thurman:
Pacquiao and Thurman will square off for the WBA Super Welterweight Title in Las Vegas this weekend.
- Thurman has been impressive in his career, winning all 29 of his fights, but he finds himself as a +108 dog to the 40-year-old Pacquiao.
- Pacquiao, who is listed at -132, has won four of his last five fights, including a beatdown of Adrien Broner in January.
UFC Fight Night (Dos Anjos vs. Edwards):
Rafael dos Anjos and Leon Edwards will highlight this week’s UFC on ESPN 4 card at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.
- Dos Anjos is coming off a win but the former UFC Lightweight Champion is still just 4-4 in his last eight bouts.
- Edwards enters on a seven-fight winning streak.
See you next week for another edition of NJBetting.com BET’S OF THE WEEK!