Koepka Co-Favored At PGA Championship As He Aims For Three-Peat

Posted on August 6, 2020

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a golf major. As a matter of fact, it’s been more than a calendar year.

On Thursday, we’ll see the 2020 PGA Championship get underway and the lead storyline will be whether Brooks Koepka can win it for a third straight year.

He’s co-favored to win along with Justin Thomas as both of them have PGA Championship Odds of +1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Let’s take a closer look at who has a good shot to win:

PGA Championship Odds – Top 5 Favorites

Brooks Koepka (+1100) – Koepka has not been great on the PGA Tour this year but regardless of how he’s played in other tournaments, he’s been fantastic in majors over the last few years.

He has a -70 in majors over the last three seasons, which is 36 strokes better than anyone else. He’s missed the cut or finished 32nd or worse in nine of 11 events this season, but he might finally have some momentum. He placed second last week at the St. Jude Invitational.

Justin Thomas (+1100) – Thomas is the world’s No. 1 player right now after winning the St. Jude Invitational last week. He’s now placed in the Top 10 in five of his last seven events. The four majors have mostly been shaky for him except for the PGA Championship. He’s won it (in 2017) and placed in the top six in each of his last two appearances there.

Rory McIlroy (+1400) – McIlroy is up there with the favorites but is he deserving of that? His best finish in his last five starts is 11th and his average finish since getting back in action after the hiatus is 32.6.

He’s won the PGA Championship twice and placed eighth last year. However, before that, he finished 50th, 22nd, missed the cut and 17th in his four previous starts (from 2015-18).

Jon Rahm (+1500) – Jon Rahm was the world’s No. 1 golfer until a 52nd-place finish last week combined with a win but Thomas pushed Rahm down to second. While he did win the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago, he has finished 27th or worse in four of his last five events.

Bryson DeChambeau (+1600) – An early darling after the restart, DeChambeau once had a stretch of seven straight events where he finished eighth or better. That included a first-place result at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Since that win, though, DeChambeau missed the cut at the Memorial Tournament and the placed 30th at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He might have lost momentum.

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Other Notables PGA Championship Odds

Dustin Johnson (+2300) – Johnson isn’t up there with the favorites because he hasn’t played well over the last month. In July, he placed 12th (St. Jude), withdrew from an event (3M Open) and missed the cut (Memorial). He’s placed 10th or worse in eight of his 10 starts.

Tiger Woods (+3700) – Woods’ last two results were 40th and 68th, so it’s not as if he’s heading into this event on a roll. He missed the cut at last year’s PGA Championship but did place second in 2018.

PGA Championship Promotions

FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel Sportsbook has a couple of promos up for the PGA Championship, which include a Birdie Bonus and some odds boosts.

For the Birdie Bonus, if you bet on a golfer to win the PGA Championship outright (at least $25), you’ll get $2 for every birdie they hit throughout the tournament.

As for their odds boosts, you have a couple of choices related to Tiger Woods. You can bet on Woods to finish in the Top 10, which is boosted from +340 to +420. You can also bet on Woods to finish with a better score than McIlroy and Thomas in Round 1, which pays at +350 instead of +260. The max bet for each is $50.


PointsBet Sportsbook

Points Bet is offering a special prop up on Tiger Woods making the cut. It’s an odds boost as his current price tag of making the cut is at -300. If you like the bet, you can get a better price at PointsBet as it’s down to -150.


BetMGM Sportsbook

BetMGM also has a couple of price boosts up on the board but they’re both parlays. You can get a Rory McIlroy-Bryson DeChambeau parlay for both of them to finish in the Top 10. That pays at +650. You can also get a Tiger Woods-Brooks Koepka-Rory McIlroy parlay to make the cut, which pays at +120.


Who Has The Action?

Taking a look at where the money is, BetMGM has reported that 7.85% of the bets are on Koepka to win the event outright, which is the most of any player on the board.

He’s also drawn 14.23% of the handle, which is the most of any player. In terms of the Bet Percentage, Koepka is followed by Bryson DeChambeau (5.90%), Justin Thomas (5.60%) and Tiger Woods (5.30%).

What’s interesting is the handle. While it goes Kopeka-DeChambeau-Thomas in terms of the order for Bet Percentage, it goes Koepka (14.23%), Thomas (11.25%) and Xander Schauffele (10.20%). It seems like there are a lot of betters that like Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay (9.39%), who is next in line.

 

“The biggest price move in tournament winner is Xander Schauffele +2300 into +1800”, said Matt Cosgriff, Sports Trading Manager, BetMGM. The sportsbook has also seen a $1200 bet on Patrick Cantlay at +3480, a $1000 bet on Webb Simpson at +2600 and as a longshot, a $10 bet on Alex Knoll to win $20,010.

“Market favorites in the PGA Championship have been synonymous winners in recent times for gamblers. This year’s market proves no exception with Brooks Koepka, who came back to form last week, is shooting for his third straight PGA Championship,” said Matt Cosgriff, Sports Trading Manager, BetMGM.

“Whilst co-favorite Justin Thomas is looking to win his second PGA Championship since 2017. 2014 PGA winner Rory McIlroy who has been finishing behind the big boys this year is no stranger to winning the event, whilst this year’s 3-Stroke Memorial Tournament winner and world ranked PGA No. 2 Jon Rahm can easily prove competitive on current form.”

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, the largest bet they have is $10,000 on Koepka at +1100 to win. If it hits, the total return would be $120,000. Meanwhile, their most popular bet on the “Miss The Cut” prop is Tiger Woods as 69% of all bets on that market are on Tiger to not even make it to the weekend, according to FanDuel.


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