Amid the post-NFL draft euphoria, bettors have early chances to assimilate the new players into season-long expectations. Post-drafts bets are coming in hot, so get ready.
FanDuel – A Rookie Prop Board Extravaganza
FanDuel sportsbook wasted no time making the NFL draft an interesting wagering launch point.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
- LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, the overwhelming choice to be the first player taken by the Cincinnati Bengals, is +250 to become the top offensive rookie.
- That’s a lot more possible than the -10000 odds (laying 100-1) you would have needed to take him as the first draft pick.
Burrow’s backfield mate Clyde Edwards-Helaire is seeing plenty of love. The last player taken in the first round by the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs is +800.
- On the one hand, you can see that it might be tough for him to fit into a crowded backfield.
- On the other hand, this team has Super Bowl MVP Pat Mahomes at quarterback and the Chiefs have an excellent offensive scheme.
- Tua Tagovailoa, the Alabama quarterback selected by the Miami Dolphins, is +800.
- Running Back D’Andre Swift, drafted in the second round by the Detroit Lions, is +900.
The first wide receivers taken obtained plenty of respect in betting circles.
- Jerry Jeudy stands at +1300.
This is an interesting play because Jeudy was projected to be the first wide receiver off the board in many mock drafts. Instead, that unexpected honor went to Henry Ruggs, tabbed as the 12th pick by the Las Vegas Raiders.
Ruggs had the fastest time of any player at the NFL Combine, which became an intangible here.
Jeudy? He went as the 15th pick and will have an excellent new quarterback, Drew Lock, throwing to him.
- CeeDee Lamb, taken 17th by the receiver-deep Dallas Cowboys is 15-1.
- If he can find playing time, he’ll have Dak Prescott tossing to him.
Ruggs is 18-1, notably behind the players he was taken ahead of in the draft.
(All three of these picks are viewed as immediate-impact players in a separate bet. All have odds of -112.).
- Jeudy has an over-under yardage prop of 850.
- Lamb is 799.5 and Ruggs is 740.5.
Pretty strong numbers for rookies.
J.K. Dobbins, the running back taken by the Baltimore Ravens, is 16-1.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
- Chase Young, the second player taken in the draft and now a Washington Redskins defensive end, is the odds-on choice for top rookie honors at +350.
- Isaiah Simmons, a linebacker taken 8th by the Arizona Cardinals, is +850.
What about the third player taken in the draft? And the second defensive player?
- Jeffrey Okudah of the Detroit Lions is a whopping 21-1.
He was drafted ahead of Simmons and just behind Young, the league’s top rookie favorite.
The reason? He’s a cornerback. The feeling is those players can’t have the same impact as the pass rushers.
Time will tell.
The beauty of this prop is that it only measures the draftees against each other.
DraftKings Burrowing In
DraftKings made Burrow the focus of its initial post-draft board.
- This one is more bettable, because it has odds of -110.
The prop calls for Burrow to throw over or under 3,850 yards in his rookie season.
A fair prop, with high-side expectations.
His projected touchdown total also looks like square odds.
- Burrow has an over-under of 21.5 scoring tosses.
That’s a reasonable target of about 1.3 per game. You’d have to figure a couple three-touchdown games and maybe a goosegg or two. Either way, it’s a sporting offer at -110 for either side.
Young also has his own prop. Expectations are fairly high for this star pass rusher.
- His over-under is 8.5 sacks at -110.
PlaySugarHouse – The Volume is Up….Way Up
In New Jersey, PlaySugarHouse day-one draft totals tripled the ENTIRE handle from last year.
The biggest first-round surprise was tackle Andrew Thomas of Georgia. The New York Giants took him fourth overall and stunned the experts predicting they would take either Simmons or Tristan Wirfs of Iowa.
- Thomas returned +1000, or 10-1, the largest payout of the opening round.
- Ruggs paid +400 to be the first receiver taken.
- He also teamed with Jeudy and Lamb to return +650 on a unique trifecta, in which bettors selected the first three receivers taken in exact order.
It was an interesting development because most of the props had Jeudy and Lamb in the first and second positions. Ruggs triggered the nice payout.
Bet MGM – Draft Affecting Team Totals?
The team props provide a form of post-draft analysis here.
The Bengals had the first pick in the draft, courtesy of being the worst NFL team this past year.
So who is favored to obtain that dubious distinction next year?
The Jacksonville Jaguars exited the draft as the favorite to have the most losses in the NFL next season.
- Their prop is + 400.
- The Redskins are second at +450, despite getting second selection Young to presumably improve their defense.
- The Bengals, armed with Burrow, are at +600. This prop anticipated them to at least jump over a couple of teams and not being the worst squad in football.
Just for a laugh, what are the elite teams being pegged at in this bet?
- The San Francisco 49ers are +25,000, roughly 250-1 odds to be the worst team in football.
- The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs? Try +50,000 or a 500-1 payoff.
Only if you like giving money to charity.
An interesting aspect of this prop is that it’s an expanded view of a seasonal over-under play. Those usually return -110. If you take a stab at this bet and correctly forecast the worst of the worst, it can pay several times more.
PointsBet – Draftees in Playoff Props
PointsBet has an interesting view of teams to make, and miss the playoffs.
- Jeudy’s Denver Broncos are +225 to make the playoffs, with the emergence of Drew Lock, down the stretch last year, and the anticipated impact of Jeudy.
- Miami, with Tagovailoa, is +475 to make the playoffs, and was also one of the exceptional NFL teams against the spread in the second half of last year.
Is Tua ready to carry this team? Or will we get another encore of Ryan Fitzpatrick?
The un-retirement of Rob Gronkowski also penetrates this betting board.
- Gronk, Tom Brady and the new-look Buccaneers are -160 to make the playoffs next year.
- You have to lay 8-5 that at team which was 7-9 last year can get over the hump and into the post-season.
Rooting against the Jags? Forget the miss-playoff bet, it’s -1250.
But they are +850 if you think they improve enough to reach the playoffs.
Cincinnati is -1270 to miss the playoffs, +700 to get in.
Breakout teams to make the playoffs?
- Cleveland is +145 on the expectation of rebounding from a disappointing year.
Golden Nugget – More About Burrow
Burrow is the most prominent post-draft prop.
- His yardage offer is over-under 3,925.
- The under is -120 and the over is +100 amid reasonable, but not lofty expectations of his rookie-year impact.
- Burrow’s over-under touchdown total is 21.5.
- The over is -120 and the under is +100.
Again, bettors will have a clear path in front of them for prop wagers. Scour the books, find your best value, and play.
