Well..that didn’t take long. Here’s what we know about the Gronk trade, and why the Buc aren’t the only ones celebrating.
One could picture the champagne corks popping as happy NFL bettors heard that Rob Gronkowski had come out of retirement and reunited with Tom Brady to become a Tampa Bay Buccaneer Tuesday afternoon.
Within two hours, FanDuel sportsbook had a “Gronk’s Back” celebratory headline outlining its NFL Futures section.
Before he had even made a public statement, Gronk had a Prop.
FanDuel Sportsbook lists his touchdown total as over-under 5.5, with the over at +120 and the under at -154.
The yardage total is over-under 599.5 with the both the over and under at -112.
How good does that first receiver to catch a Brady touchdown look now?
- Chris Godwin is the favorite at +195
- Mike Evans is +200.
- Gronk pulls up into the third position with +340
- Cameron Brate, whose action is going to suffer from Gronkowski in the mix, is at +700
New England will send Gronkowski and a seventh-round draft pick to Tampa Bay in exchange for a fourth-round pick. Gronkowski has passed his physical with the Bucs according to media reports.
Gronk Trade Shifts Futures Odds at DraftKings
DraftKings sportsbook immediately moved Tampa Bay from 16-1 to 12-1 to win the Super Bowl next year.
That makes Tampa Bay tied as the fourth-highest favorite.
- The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are 6-1.
- The Baltimore Ravens are 7-1.
- The San Francisco 49ers, who lost to the Chiefs in the last Super Bowl are 9-1.
- Then come the New Orleans Saints at 12-1, along with Tampa Bay.
The Philadelphia Eagles are in the next spot at 18-1.
And right behind them? The Patriots, at 20-1.
The betting sentiment at DraftKings Sportsbook expects Brady to become rejuvenated with a stellar receiving corps and for Gronkowski to recapture form after a year away from the sport.
Gronkowski retired in March, 2019 after nine seasons in the NFL.
According to NFL Research, Brady has thrown 78 touchdown passes to Gronkowski and 39 to the next-highest, Randy Moss.
Gronkowski. leads all NFL tight ends with a career average of 68.4 receiving yards per game.
Gronkowski has three Super Bowl rings, all during his time with Brady, who has six.
PlaySugarHouse – Monitoring the Big Drop
Just like DraftKings, PlaySugarHouse has the new-look Bucs pegged into a fourth-place tie with New Orleans in the futures position.
Unlike some others, it chronicled the seismic shift in Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl odds throughout the off-season.
- Tampa Bay has gone from 50-1 to 12-1, without playing a down.
- On March 13, the Bucs were 50-1. They did not have Brady.
And then came the rumors. Brady was thinking of joining a team with a stellar receiving corps, a team ready to break out.
And the Bucs were longshots no more.
- The first move was to 40-1 on March 17, as rumors of Brady becoming a Buc intensified.
- Then it was 30-1, 22-1 and 20-1.
- Brady’s move was announced on March 21.
- He was 16-1 early Tuesday afternoon and 12-1 just a couple hours later.
If nothing else, Tampa Bay has become the league’s most popular team in the off-season. Wheeling and dealing will do that.
“The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to make outstanding moves to become a contender for the Super Bowl,”
Mattias Stetz, the C.O.O of Rush Street Interactive, which operates PlaySugarHouse.com and BetRiver.com, said Tuesday night.
“They have captured the imagination of the betting public. Reuniting Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski could become a master stroke for them. The bettors weighed in immediately after hearing about this trade.”
POINTS BET – Bucs Are Fifth Choice
Tampa Bay is 14-1 to win the Super Bowl at PointsBet, a higher payout being given to its competitors for those who can pull the futures trigger now.
PointsBet has the Patriots at 20-1.
What a difference a month makes.
Gronk Trade Analysis
This is an interesting, early display of faith by the betting public.
Tampa Bay did not make the playoffs last year at 7-9. The Bucs self-destructed because talented quarterback Jameis Winston uncorked the first 30-30 year in NFL history. Thirty-three touchdowns and 30 costly interceptions, many resulting in Pick 6’s or short fields for Tampa Bay opponents, derailed this excellent offense.
Tampa Bay scored 458 points last year, third in all of the football behind Baltimore and San Francisco. The Bucs had as many points as the New Orleans Saints, who won 13 games.
But the Bucs gave up 449 points, the fourth-highest in football.
Tampa Bay, and the bettors, expect to change.
Brady had an off-year and looked uncomfortable without a stalwart receiving target. But now he has a corps of talent around him.
Tampa Bay’s improvement should begin with the mindset of making the playoffs. Brady not only knows how to win games but elevates the play of those around him.
This will be about discipline. Brady has limited mobility, but only threw eight interceptions versus 24 touchdowns last season.
Brady’s improvement over Winston will center on his ability to read defenses and thus not hold the ball for too long. Defenses confused Winston last year and he threw often into disguised coverages.
Gronk joins a crowded tight-end position that includes O.J. Howard and Brate. Both are strong receivers but unlikely to be happy.
Brate’s name has been discussed in trade rumors with the Green Bay Packers.
That would be a good fit for him.
Bettors will see a more methodical Tampa Bay team. It will probably scoreless and win more.
Winston was the best friend ever to over bettors last year. He could yield a pick 6 and immediately get it back.
Tampa will have to find a running game for Brady. Otherwise, all this team did was get older.
Will Winston leave? Does he have the patience to learn from Brady and be a sub, after leading the NFL in passing yardage last year?
The betting board will tell us.