The matchup for Super Bowl LIV is set as the Kansas City Chiefs are a small favorite over the San Francisco 49ers. Next week, we’ll focus our Super Bowl Best Bets article on the spread, total and MVP, but for this week, we’re focusing our picks on three props on the board that we like.
We’ve sifted through the huge array at DraftKings Sportsbook to find this trio of Super Bowl Best Bets, so let’s see if we can cash with these:
Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards
Date: Sunday, February 2nd
The 49ers don’t necessarily have to pass a lot to win games. As we saw in the NFC Championship Game, they rolled to a 37-20 over the Green Bay Packers as Jimmy Garoppolo threw the ball a total of just eight times.
However, when they do throw, Deebo Samuel has been a popular target for Garoppolo as he had three targets for 46 yards in the NFC Championship Game and had six targets for 42 yards in the Divisional Round.
Samuel has been seeing plenty of looks in the second half of the season as his targets from Halloween on were: 7, 11, 10, 2, 4, 8, 3, 6 and 5. Over those final nine games of the season, Samuel has averaged 68.3 receiving yards per game.
The Chiefs are likely to put a lot of attention on All-Pro tight end George Kittle, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Samuel had a lot of one-on-one looks. He should be able to take advantage of those matchups and hit the over with this prop.
Pick: Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
Damien Williams Rushing Yards
Odds: Under 50.5 at DraftKings
Date: Sunday, February 2nd
The Chiefs are not a team that likes to run the ball a lot as they were 15th in pass attempts this season but had the sixth-fewest rushing attempts. They had 576 passing attempts this year while only running it 375 times, which shows that they only run it 39.4% of the time.
A bigger issue for the Chiefs here is that the 49ers actually have a pretty good run defense as they allowed 112.6 rushing yards per game and keep in mind that might be a bit inflated as they dealt with a number of key injuries on defense.
When they were healthy, they were tough to run on. They’ve allowed a total of 83 rushing yards in their two playoff wins so far, so I’m not expecting the Chiefs to run for much – especially since it’s not something they do a lot of.
On top of that, Damien Williams is hard to trust. It’s a low number for him here but keep in mind he had just 45 yards on 17 carries against the Tennessee Titans and had just 47 yards on 12 carries against the Houston Texans.
He did cross the 50.5-yard mark in four of his last five regular-season games but those were actually the only times this year that he’s gone over that number. Every other game he’s gone under. I’m expecting that to continue in the Super Bowl.
Pick: Williams Under 50.5 Rushing Yards
Total Successful Field Goals By 49ers (Away Team)
Date: Sunday, February 2nd
The Kansas City Chiefs defense is an interesting unit in the sense that they give up a lot of yards but they don’t give up a ton of points. On the season, they were 17th in total yards allowed, which obviously isn’t great, but they were ranked seventh when it comes to points allowed as they gave up just 19.3 per game.
With that type of production, it has me thinking that the San Francisco 49ers should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game but they might get stuck in the red zone and have to settle for a field goal here or there. We only need to hit two to make this prop hit the over and 49ers kicker Robbie Gould is usually money in the bank if he gets opportunities.
On the year, he was 0-4 from 50 or longer but he did hit 23-of-27 field goals otherwise. More importantly, being a key piece of this explosive offense, Gould had at least two field goals in eight games this season and he had at least two opportunities in 10 games. Remember, he also missed three games due to injury. Add it all up and I think we’ll hit the over with this prop.
Super Bowl Best Bets Pick: Over 1.5 Field Goals
Other Things To Watch This Week
Winnipeg Jets at Columbus Blue Jets – There are just two games on the board in the NHL on Wednesday as the league prepares for the All-Star break. The Jets and Blue Jackets are both currently in playoff position but both are not that far off from missing the cut too, so points are at a premium for both sides.
No. 24 Rutgers at No. 19 Iowa – With the college football season coming to an end, the college focus now shifts to the hardwood. On Wednesday, Rutgers and Iowa will clash on the Big Ten Network with both teams ranking in the Top 25. This is a surprisingly important game as both teams are fightin for the top spot in a very loaded conference.
Pro Bowl: NFC vs AFC – Remember that the Super Bowl is still a week away, which means that the only football game in town this week is the Pro Bowl. This year’s edition will be held at the Camping World Stadium, in Orlando, Florida. Early lines show that the AFC is favored by 3.5 points.
See you same time next week when we start off the week with our Best Bets Of The Week!
