UFC beckons with another Fight Island challenge this weekend.
The names are not as big as last weekend’s blockbuster, but the card still presents a nice wagering puzzle for NJ online sports betting sites. Here are the main fights and early odds for Saturday’s card from DraftKings and FanDuel, as of Thursday.
UFC Fight Island 2 Schedule & Betting Odds
UFC Fight Island 2 – Main Card 8 PM & DraftKings Odds
- Deiveson Figueiredo, -215 vs Joseph Benavidez, + 170, for vacant flyweight title.
- Kelvin Gastelum -125 vs Jack Hermansson, +100
- Marc Diakiese, -155 vs Rafael Fiziev +125
- Ariane Lipski -129 vs Luana Carolina, + 112
- Alexandre Pantoja, -200 vs Askar Askarov +160
UFC Fight Island 2 – Top Prelims 5 PM & FanDuel Odds
- Roman Dolidze -190 vs Khadis Ibragimov +160
- Grant Dawson -250 vs Nad Narimani +205
- Joe Duffy -370 vs Joel Alexander +270
- Montel Jackson -225 vs Brett Johns +188
- Arman Tsarukyan -225 vs Davi Ramos +188
With the rapidity of UFC cards, with practically one every weekend since May 9, bettors may not easily be able to track the whole field.
Don’t’ feel bad. The books have the same dilemma.
“The oddsmakers think they know who should be favored, but not necessarily by how much,” Johnny Avello, Director of Sportsbook Operations for DraftKings, told njbetting.com. “It could be too high or too low.
“That’s one thing that’s great about having so many fights on a card. You can look for alternatives. You don’t have to bet a big favorite.”
Repeat events will ultimately sharpen your handicapping eye too.
For late action bettors: watch the prop boards and odds boosts, along with promos. Excellent enticement.
UFC Fight Island 2 – Betting Variables
- Figueiredo initially tested positive for COVID before this event. He later tested negative. The rematch won’t be finalized until he takes another test Friday.
- Pantoja could be shifted to the main event if there is a problem with Figueiredo’s testing.
- The main event is a rematch of an earlier TKO 2 victory for Figueiredo. It was also supposed to be for the flyweight title. Because Figueiredo didn’t make weight that night, the title remained vacant and Benavidez got 30% of Figueiredo’s purse.
Prop-wise at FanDuel Sportsbook:
- A Figueiredo KO/TKO is +125. A KO/TKO by either fighter is +115.
- Figueiredo ranges from +500 to + 1100 in picking the exact knockout round.
- Benavidez goes from +3100 to +4000.
And on Thursday, came two words that are music to the betting ear, the mini phrase that pays:
FanDuel ODDS BOOST. For a max $50 bet, the Figueiredo KO/TKO outcome becomes +150.
This is interesting for two reasons. First, that’s greater betting value if you like that result. Second, it gives you a sense of where the book thinks there is a lot of interest.
The co-main is a matchup of ranked middleweight fighters. Hermansson is the UFC’s sixth-ranked contender. Gastelum is number seven.
Memories of Cha-Ching: Booking A Great Experience
A look back at UFC 251 reveals the depth of the betting perspective, with both the books and the gamblers heavily immersed.
The UFC Fight Island debut last Saturday brought big business to the sportsbooks. Many in general cleaned up as a strong majority of the money came in on the main-event loser, Jorge Masvidal. William Hill sportsbook, for example, took a $200,000 wager on Masvidal, who was beat by Kamaru Usman.
Two bettors made nice scores.
One went 13-for-13, taking the moneyline on every matchup. The user turned $25 into $11,888.61 at FanDuel.
The sweat: two bouts were split decisions, but they came through. And bettors got a bonus. FanDuel issued refunds after the Alexander Volkanovski-Max Holloway co-main won by Volkanovski via split decision.
FanDuel basically considered the decision a “bad beat” and prompted goodwill with the refunds. They do not affect Volkanovski’s winning wagers.
One DraftKings Sportsbook bettor turned $2.50 into more than $6,000. The gambler nailed a seven-leg parlay with odds of nearly 2500-1. Here was the full ticket.
- Usman by Decision +150
- Volkanovski by Decision +110
- Yan by KO, TKO or DQ in Round 5 +1700
- Namajunas by Decision +150
- Ribas by Submission +180
- Prochazaka Moneyline +129
- Santos Moneyline -164
The Genius:
- Scoring two EXACT methods of victory, a submission for Amanda Ribas over Paige Van Zant, and a TKO 5 for Petr Yan over Jose Aldo.
- And for taking a Usman decision, rather than simply a victory. The bet showed knowledge that 8 of Usman’s 10 UFC fights had gone all the way.
The Sweat:
With this many selections, you need a couple of things to break just the right way. Yan was the first. He secured the stoppage with less than two minutes left in the fight. And that was the big payout in the mix.
Volkanovski won a split decision, so disputed that FanDuel gave refunds to its players. This was a DraftKings ticket anyway. For any first-time bettors, the refund (or Good Karma payouts by PointsBet) doesn’t change the verdict, it just means the losing side doesn’t lose.
The refund moves have been public relations blockbusters. FanDuel tweeted out thanks to UFC President Dana White for complaining about the decision as it issued the refunds. This is one of the most effective forms of advertising available to a book, if used sparingly.
Almost buried in that news is the fact that Rose Namajunas won a split decision over Jessica Andrade. Not disputed, but it comes under the “sweat” category.
That was a lot of fun on one ticket the price of a regular coffee. And a lot of return too.
Bettors love hearing how others made their big scores.
In the wagering community, besides one’s own fortunes, that’s what it’s all about.
