New Jersey UFC bettors have a chance to get ahead of the board.
Midweek lines at FanDuel and DraftKings revealed an absence of major props for Saturday’s UFC card from Las Vegas. But in studying the moneyline wagers and fighter histories, gamblers can gain an instinct about whether to bet props when they appear closer to fight time.
- Jessica Eye and Cynthia Calvillo are both -110 at DraftKings in the main event.
- FanDuel has Calvillo as a slight -106 favorite with Eye at -116.
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UFC Fight Night Odds – June, 13 2020
UFC Main Card – FanDuel Odds: 9 p.m.
- Cynthia Calvillo -106 vs Jessica Eye -116
- Marvin Vettori -230 vs Karl Roberson +184
- Merab Dvalishvili -410 vs Ray Borg +300
- Andre Fili -230 vs Charles Jourdain +184
- Jordan Espinosa -160 vs Mark De La Rosa +130
UFC Preliminary Card – DraftKings Odds: 6 p.m.
Some fights on the undercard changed. Others may be added.
- Kevin Aguilar -177 vs Charles Rosa +140
- Julia Avila -500 vs Gina Mazany +350
- Jordan Griffin -177 vs Derrick Minner +140
Well, the big names are gone and this could become a pattern as UFC compiles cards almost weekly. How do bettors approach this? Think moneylines first and props later, if they fit into your handicapping assessments.
There is something intangible that can be placed into many bouts. The only question is how strong a betting impulse it generates.
The intangible for Eye and Cavillo is the weight…
- Cavillo is ranked No. 10 in the strawweight division.
- Eye is number 1 in the flyweight division.
Cavillo historically fights at a lower weight division. Edge for Eye.
Eye has won four of her last five. The only setback was a definitive second-round knockout loss to Valentina Shevchenko last year. Shevchenko is the flyweight division champ.
Eye scored a victory in her last fight, a decision over Viviane Araujo in December. She also has a 2018 win over Katlyn Chookagian, the number 2 flyweight.
Cavillo fought to a draw with Marina Rodriguez last December. Her most recognizable opponent was Carla Esparza, who defeated her.
There are some factors to like for Eye. As for props, these fighters have a low knockout percentage and the female bouts in the UFC post Covid phase, which began May 9, have been featuring decisions. Even Amanda Nunes, the top women’s pound-for-pound, was stretched the full limit in a victory over Felicia Spencer last week.
UFC Fight Night Co Main Intangible: Bad Blood
Vettori and Roberson were supposed to fight on April 25, but the card was canceled because of the pandemic. It was rebooked for May 13 in Jacksonville, Florida, but complications from a bad weight cut forced Roberson to withdraw the night before the fight.
Vettori confronted him in the lobby of the host hotel the following day and security intervened before it escalated.
**WARNING: Graphic Language**
How mad is Vettori? Can he channel the anger into the Octagon? Will it make him seek a more definitive victory? Should a Vettori submission prop emerge, he has won 62% of his fights that way.
Little separates these fighters other than emotion. They are both on two-fight win streaks. Their height and reach are the same. Who is more motivated?
Dvalishvili – Bettors May Pass
Knowing what’s not a good bet is just as important as knowing what it. Dvalishvili backers find themselves in a tough spot.
He’s saddled with prohibitive odds and a low knockout percentage in which the over-under of 2.5 rounds at FanDuel are -350.
This fight is almost impossible to play for his backers. Borg has lost three of his last five. The fighters have two common opponents. Both lost to Ricky Simon. Dvalishvili has a win over Casey Kenney, who beat Borg.
Those who back Borg may think he really won his recent split-decision setback to Simon, thus making him overlooked. That could be where Borg bettors hang their hat. A 3-1 ret urn is generous.
Fili-Jourdain – Balance versus Flamboyance
Fili is more experienced and has a varied menu of nine wins, three submissions and eight decisions among his 20 wins. He comes in off a three-round decision loss to Sodiq Yusuff in January.
When Jourdain wins, he wins big. Stoppage victories have come from:
- Flying Knees
- Rear-Naked Chokes
- Guillotine Chokes
- Punch Combinations
He will be an interesting fighter to watch on the prop board. Those who support him may take a side bet for a KO/TKO at a nice price because Jourdain is an aggressive fighter. The question will be whether he has the discipline to win.
Espinosa-DeLaRosa – Who Gets it Going?
Rounding out the main card, Espinosa has lost two straight after winning five in a row. He was choked out in both setbacks.
DeLaRosa has found the UFC slope difficult.
After going 9-0 outside the circuit, he stepped up into it and has gone 2-4, including his last three. Both fighters have been beaten by Alex Perez, who choked out Espinosa and gained a decisive victory over DeLaRosa.
UFC Will Keep it Coming
With UFC delivering cards nearly every week, bettors will probably juggle their priorities. Most cards won’t be the battle of the big names. It will be a matter of finding an edge.
The multi-bout format per card has worked out well at DraftKings, according to Johnny Avello, its head of sportsbook operations. This is the sixth UFC card in just over a month. Underdogs, many under 2-1, have thrived during this period.
“The business levels were as strong as they’ve ever been for UFC over the past couple of weeks and yes, better than I thought they would be,” Avello told njbetting.com. “Our patrons do seem to wager on underdogs but it still worked out ok for us on the revenue side.
“In the short term, UFC should continue to do well but over time, as it gets somewhat watered down and the core sports return, the total action may subside just a trace. “
Just a trace is not bad for all this action.