Week 8 NFL Betting Recap: Books Get Crushed By Public Money Again

Written By Marco Cerino on October 31, 2018

Happy Halloween! If you’re tired of odd costumes or dreading children coming round to beg for candy, we have a diversion for you — this article.

Treats for Players

After a successful Week 7, public bettors in New Jersey followed up with another strong performance. Sunday started strong with the Eagles continuing the trend of favorites winning in London.

The Birds covered for only the third time this season, winning 24-16 against Jacksonville. William Hill tweeted that game accounted for 21% of the handle collected before the 1 p.m. kickoffs, and the Eagles earned 87% of the public money.

As the afternoon wore on, the situation grew more dire for the books. Favorite after favorite covered.

In the early game, both William Hill and FanDuel Sportsbook reported heavy interest in the Washington-NY Giants game. Despite the Giants’ loss on Monday night, the line on that game stayed around WAS -1 across the board leading to kickoff. The NFC East leaders won handily.

William Hill got a slight reprieve when a late FG in Kansas City gave the underdog Broncos a backdoor cover. The Chiefs got two-thirds of the public money on the game ranked third in handle share. Tampa Bay’s late comeback against the Bengals saved the book in their matchup as well.

However, heavily-bet favorites like Chicago and Pittsburgh came up winners for the public.

Tricks from Gurley

Consider if you will the Packers and Rams matchup. The game opened as much as LA -9.5 in NJ, the largest spread deficit faced by Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers in his career. By Sunday there was a variety of price points.

The move towards the Packers looked clairvoyant as the first half started. The Rams gained control in the second half, and a late fumble looked like it would give them a chance to cover.

Then Gurley didn’t go for the end zone and the world (on social media) almost rioted. It’s not an unprecedented move (look at Brian Westbrook giving himself up in the 2007 finale at Texas Stadium with a win in the bag for the Eagles) but it had major repercussions.

FanDuel reported “heavier losses” as the Pack covered. PlaySugarHouse reported the touchdown and extra point would have forced a push at their LA -9 point and losses at -9.5. William Hill had the game 72% Packers, which meant another win for the players.

The week concluded with wins and covers by the Saints and Patriots on the road. PlaySugarHouse said players won most of the games. FanDuel characterized the week as “the best weekend for our customers since the NFL season started.”

Trade deadline moves players — and odds

Cool note to pass along from FanDuel. Two big receivers changed addresses Tuesday afternoon at the NFL trade deadline. Demaryius Thomas went from the Broncos to the Texans, while Golden Tate left Detroit for Philadelphia.

In kind, those two teams saw an uptick in their Super Bowl odds. Houston went from +2200 to +2000, while the Eagles dropped from +2900 to +2200 (they were +800 at most places before the season started).

The Rams still have the shortest odds at +265, followed by the Patriots at +400 and the Saints at +500.

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